When starting a business, the chance of the third business being successful is significantly higher than the first one.

Oct 31, 2026

Previously: When starting a business, the chance of the third business being successful is significantly higher than the first one. [Distorted]: Francis hedged this, but the research does not back it. A large Harvard study of venture-backed founders found first-time founders succeeded about 18% of the time and founders whose earlier company had failed about 20% of the time, while founders with an earlier success reached 30%. So past success clearly raises your odds, but past failure barely changes them. Research showing founders on a third venture after earlier failures succeed far more often than first-timers would prove this verdict wrong.

Now: When starting a business, the chance of the third business being successful is significantly higher than the first one. [Unverified]: The speaker hedges the recollection and asks Jamie to check it. Lerner's study summary compares IPO outcomes for venture-backed founders: 18% for first-timers, 20% after a prior failure and 30% after a prior success. It does not specifically compare all third businesses after two failures with all first businesses. Those findings do not settle the broader claim, so the verdict is unresolved.

A narrow venture-capital IPO study is not a direct refutation of a general third-business assertion.